Canyon Wildfires--Real and Simulated

To help people visualize the problem wildfire may present, T-CEP commissioned two studies. The first is an historical analysis of the November 1977 fire that started in the Garapito Creek watershed, ran through the Cheney/Callon neighborhood into the Arteique area without crossing Topanga Canyon Boulevard. It represents a significant fire at the low end of the scale.

The second simulates fires that get started at two different places under three sets of wind and weather conditions. One fire starts well outside Topanga Canyon, between the southern end of Van Alden Avenue and the unpaved section of Mulholland Highway in Encino. The other starts just north of the water tanks at the crest of Topanga Canyon Boulevard.

There is not room here to discuss either study in detail. Copies are available on loan from T-CEP. But, a few of the main points are sufficient to set the parameters for present purposes.

The historical study of the November 1977 fire makes the following major points:
1. Wildfires move very fast. From its start at about 2 p.m., the fire reached its fullest extent by dusk--about 5 p.m. In that time half a dozen homes were destroyed or severely damaged, and all of Topanga east of Topanga Canyon Boulevard and north of the Center had been ordered to be evacuated.

2. Wind and weather are critical variables. Fortunately the wind was from the north and helped confine the fire to the east side of Topanga Canyon Boulevard. Most important, at around dusk the wind shifted to an onshore breeze, bringing in lower temperatures, higher humidity and fog, all of which conspired to slow and damp down the fire, making it possible for the firefighters to contain it overnight. Had those conditions not prevailed, the fire was headed for the Post Office Tract where it might have done considerably more damage.

3. In the years since 1977 all these homes have been rebuilt, most in similar style, and the burned-over vegetation has regrown to pre-fire condition--sometimes worse. New construction has greatly increased the density of homes and plantings, while the roads have not improved and in some cases have deteriorated. A new fire of the 1977 type is not only possible, but increasingly likely as time goes on and brush, plantings and homes multiply.

4. In terms of evacuation, the Cheney/Paradise Lane/Callon area has only one means of exit--Cheney Road. This narrow, winding road is also the only means by which firefighters can enter the area, creating the potential for collisions that could prevent aid reaching the scene of the fire. Similar conditions would have prevailed in the Arteique area as well as the Post Office Tract.

The simulation was done using the FARSITE computer model in use by the Los Angeles County Fire Department, the National Park Service and others having to deal with wildfires. It may be the best available model for studying the interaction of fire, terrain and vegetation in an effort to develop improved fire prevention and control strategies. We must emphasize that FARSITE does not predict outcomes. It can only suggest possibilities. Even so, it enables us to pose questions whose answers may give us some insight into how a major wildfire might impact the Canyon.

This simulation was intended to show the impact of different ignition points and different wind conditions on the spread of a major fire. Computer simulations are not intended to produce answers-they are designed to improve the quality of the questions one asks. On that standard the simulations were quite successful.*

(*By the way, T-CEP is acquiring the machinery and training to do simulations like this itself as well as to create databases to better accomplish its purposes.)

Question: Why were only two ignition points tried, and both at the north end of the Canyon?

Answer: It was not practical to try more points or more complex base conditions. Other efforts are underway to look at other fire models. But fire is a very complex phenomenon and the models themselves are complicated and don't pretend to predict conditions with sufficient precision to provide reliable advice in real situations.

Question: Could a wildfire that started outside the Canyon be blown into Topanga and then involve the entire Canyon?

Answer: Yes, and it is more than possible, although no one can be precise about where or when such a disaster might occur.

Question: Under moderate conditions, how long does it take for the fire to hit populated neighborhoods in Topanga?

Answer: Fires starting at either of the ignition points simulated would reach clusters of homes in a minimum of two, and a maximum of six hours, depending on wind conditions and ignition point. It should be clear, however, that these estimates are only suggestive.

Question: From a fire's start to its arrival at the coast, how long?

Answer: A minimum of 12 hours and as much as 23. In November 1993, however, the fire burned from Old Topanga Canyon Road to the coast in five to six hours.

Question: Are there any protected or fireproof places?

Answer: Not really, but there are places when fire seems to be slowed. These seem to be canyon bottoms, especially if they have water in them, and places where the fire has to burn downhill or against the wind.

These models are educational tools. Our purpose in pursuing them is to try to bring the best tools available closer to the people who need them. But individual judgment is still essential. It's your family and your home and there is no shortcut to safety in a wildfire.

Conventionally, evacuation means to remove people from a source of danger to a safe area where they remain until the danger is past.

This is not an adequate definition either to cover the meaning of evacuation in Topanga or all the complexities a real situation may create. A model for evacuation that may be more applicable is one created by the Tasmanian Fire Service (that's right, Tasmania, as in Australia). Tasmania has a climate and terrain somewhat like ours only their forests are mostly eucalypts. They have evolved a very different strategy for dealing with wildfires. The word "evacuation" is reserved strictly for a situation where there is a clear and present threat to life and where the evacuation is mandatory and carried out by police, by force if necessary.

In the Tasmanian system, prior to an evacuation order there is a level of voluntary movement in which residents are advised to move to pre-designated safe areas until the fire has moved through. These areas may consist of playing fields, parking lots, etc., and may be close to where people live. This enables people to avoid the worst of the fire, yet be close enough to their homes to return quickly and help deal with hot spots, small fires and the delayed outbreak of smoldering embers.

In the event of wildfire in Topanga, the evacuation order would be issued by the senior responsible official of the Fire Department in overall command of the effort to deal with the fire and its consequences. That order is mandatory and enforceable under current California law. As a practical matter, however, there is unlikely to be enough time and personnel to remove people who refuse to cooperate unless they interfere with the firefighting effort or endanger others. In fact the firefighters would welcome the help of residents who stayed behind to the extent they were able to be of help. What no one wants and everyone fears is that some people will stay who are unable to help, or who get in over their heads and become rescue cases, diverting resources from firefighting.

There are three surveyed and sanctioned "Public Refuge Areas" in Topanga listed in the Los Angeles County Fire Department brochure titled, "Operation Evacuation." They are the Topanga Elementary School, the Community House and the Big Rock Recreation Area/Calmont School area. There is no doubt these three are better than none. The question is, might it be possible to define-or even create-additional areas? Then people wishing to stay close to their homes in order to help protect them from fire could do so in relative safety.

The desire to increase the number of refuge areas responds to the three main deterrents to evacuation:
1. Evacuation becomes more dangerous as time passes, given the nature of the roads, the stress people would be operating under, and likely poor visibility due to smoke.
2. If the roads are closed after a resident has evacuated her family or before she is able to get home, she may be unable to reach home until days later whether her home was directly threatened or not.
3. It often happens that a home will survive the first exposure to the wildfire, even if unattended. But hours later, smoldering embers may reignite to destroy a home.

Planning Factors

We have tried to assemble information about each option for your consideration. We have tried to provide pointers to more information or relevant training or sources of supply. Again, we cannot advise you. Cost, feasibility, and adequacy are all factors that can only be addressed in specific cases. But many things can be done that require mostly care and time.

T-CEP has assembled the information on which this booklet is based in a library which can be made available. You have only to contact us.

Preparation

Safety is the first and last consideration in preparation.

It hardly makes sense to undertake a task as complicated and difficult as defending your home against a wildfire without having made detailed preparations. The thing to ask about the pictures you have seen of a lone homeowner on his roof with a garden hose is, did the house and owner survive? And, if they did, how much help, and from whom, did they have before it was all over?

Before you leap onto your roof, you should, at least, consider the facts discussed below. It is one thing to say that when the day comes, here's what I'll do. . .it is quite another to look the flames in the eye. Your stress level will skyrocket and the major effects of stress will come on rapidly --narrowing your attention and deteriorating your judgment. No one is immune. The whole purpose of planning and training is to implant some routines in our mind, in the hopes that they will come to the fore when needed.

Professionals acquire their presence of mind only with constant training and experience. Even so, they suffer the same effects of stress as everyone else. Their advantage is that their repertoire of responses due to training and experience is wide enough and fresh enough to kick in quickly and with good effect.

An important aspect of confronting a wildfire is acknowledging that you cannot do it alone. At a minimum you need someone to watch your back--to keep an eye on the fire and where it is. Perhaps the greatest cause of firefighter deaths due to entrapment while fighting a wildfire is the victims' losing sight of where the fire was. Wind and terrain can combine to cause rapid and unpredictable changes in the fire's behavior.

A case in point was the entrapment of several engines and crews during the Calabasas fire of 1996. In this case several engines had been assigned to protect homes in an enclave in the Malibu hills. In the process of repositioning one of the crews, a lookout had to take his eyes off the fire, and in that few minutes a wind gust blew the fire around a corner and up a driveway so that it caught one man in the open and three others trying to shelter in a fire engine. (See Los Angeles County Fire Department, "Calabasas Entrapment.")

This only illustrates how quickly conditions can change and how important it is to maintain surveillance of a fire.

A shorthand way of expressing this used by firefighters is "LCES." The initials stand for Lookouts, Communication, Escape routes and Safe areas. "LCES" functions sequentially--it's a self-triggering mechanism. Lookouts assess--and reassess--the fire environment and Communicate threats to safety; firefighters should always identify potential Escape routes and use them to reach Safety areas which are identified and/or prepared as the operation proceeds so that safe areas follow the firefighters. (See Gleason, "LCES.")

Plan

A plan is essential whether the final decision is to evacuate at the first sign of fire or to remain in place to defend one's home. The plan to stay needs to consider three classes of things: the people who will be involved, the structure to be protected, and the terrain it occupies.

T-CEP has taken the lead in encouraging neighborhoods to organize for emergency preparedness. This has not focused on the issue of remaining to protect homes in the event of a wildfire, but neighborhood groups are certainly a place to discuss the issue. If you have neighbors of a like mind and commitment, there may be strength as well as safety in numbers.

If you are a member of a family with children, or disabled or frail members, the situation changes greatly. Close up a wildfire makes a deafening noise, it creates gale force winds, the air is full of burning embers which can cause serious burns and will burn holes in clothing which, due to the stress, you probably won't notice until after the fire is past. No one should have to go through it against their desire. Real honesty is required here. Do you really want to go through it?

Planning Considerations

Most planning advice is like the recipe for bear stew: "Take one medium size bear. . ." they begin. They don't say what steps are involved in getting the bear into the kitchen. In the following steps we will try to be a little more helpful. Planning is largely a matter of comparing what is with what you'd like it to be, and then making a list of the things you need or the steps you need to take to get from where you are to where you want to be.

The perfect plan does not and will not exist. First, you probably do not have unlimited resources. Second, between today and the time when the dreaded event happens some time will have passed-time when you have to carry out your plan. The fire will not be as predicted--people you thought would be available to help will not be, resources you planned for will turn out to have disappeared or will be in use for other purposes. Even if all reasonable measures are taken, chance or sheer bad luck can't be ruled out.

The most important part of the plan, next to acting on it, is the thought process. Consider the process of making the plan the first rehearsal.

The forms we present you in the following sections are just to jog your memory. Feel free to add details, but delete things with care.

Wildfire Planning Checklist

In the years before the fire
o Identify potential routes via which fire might approach the house. Pay attention to "ladder" fuels--areas of brush that might bring the fire to the house. These might be tree lines, hedges, flammable fences, etc. Interrupt these paths either by removing vegetation or inserting nonflammable fence sections adjoining the house.

o Check the roof and decks to insure they are in good condition and do not have broken or displaced elements that might give wind-borne embers a place to take hold--rake or blow off leaves and twigs.

o Provide a 30-foot defensible space around the house. [A 50-foot space would be preferable. Give the firefighter something to work with and an incentive to try.]

o Identify and rehearse with primary and alternative escape routes for use in an emergency. [Escape routes might lead into danger unless there is good information about where the fire is and where it is headed. Be especially mindful of how fast the fire may move if the wind is strong and blowing a along your route.]

o Identify local and remote places of refuge--local being within a short distance of your home where you can ride out the fire and get back to your home in time to deal with spot fires and to douse smoldering embers. The remote refuge should be well beyond the area impacted by the fire.

o Establish normal and emergency communication plans. How would all family members hear about the fire? How would they contact each other about the fire? Outside the immediate fire area, how would family members communicate with each other? How would the family communicate with family and friends wherever they might be?

o Define how the decision to evacuate would be made and how each family member would contribute.

When the fire is real and present

o Hoses at least 5/8 inch in diameter, connected to bibs, should be long enough to easily reach any part of the dwelling and should be covered with an abrasion-resistant covering. [To avoid kinking, lay the hoses out in loose 'esses.']

o Your tool kit should include:
-at least one long-handled, round nose shovel
-at least one non-flammable ladder long enough to safely reach the roof
-at least one rake
-at least one 5-lb. general purpose fire extinguisher

These might be usefully supplemented with
-an axe or gas-powered chain saw
-a hoe
-metal trash cans to be filled with water at each major corner of the house
-one or more water buckets
-a back-up water supply and gas-powered water pump
-protective clothing, i.e., Nomex or, at least all-cotton long pants and long-sleeved shirt, layered if possible; leather shoes or boots; a hard hat and gloves. Goggles and a good filter mask will keep hot embers and soot out of your eyes and lungs.

When the fire is close and threatening

o Close all openings into the house--windows, doors, and especially vents. Screen all vent openings with metal screen no larger than 1/8 inch square [should have been done long beforehand]. Unprotected vents may be the leading cause of loss of homes, certainly after the main fire front has passed.

o Close window protection equipment--shutters, non-flammable drapes, Venetian blinds, etc.

o Remove flammable curtains, drapes, etc. from the windows. Move flammable furniture or any other flammable material or objects as far from windows as possible. Ordinary window glass will transmit heat almost perfectly. Radiant heat alone could ignite materials inside the house.

o Test the water pressure at each faucet you might use. Be sure that water is turned off in all indoor faucets and that shut-off valves inside the house are turned off. If you think you will need water during the time of threat, fill sinks or other containers after you have made other preparations. [Why turn off the valves under the sinks and behind the toilets? To minimize the possibility that, if the heat becomes intense enough, it could melt the solder holding the pipes together and result in leaks that could all-the-more quickly exhaust water supplies or reduce pressure.]

o If you have a vulnerable roof, raise the ladder and take a hose to it. [Remember however, that anyone on the roof will be exposed to intense heat and wind-blown embers. That person will be in an extremely dangerous position. No one should be in that position without the support and help of someone on the ground.]

o Move flammable material, such as fire wood, as far as possible from the house. What cannot be removed should be brought inside.

o Vehicles should be brought into the garage, if possible with the door closed. All vehicles should be left unlocked with keys in the ignition and should be parked headed toward the best escape route.

o Cover the inside of all windows with aluminum foil or anything that will reflect heat. Windows should be double-paned insulated glass. In short, do whatever you can to prevent radiant heat or hot air from getting into the house.

o If you have LPG or fuel oil tanks, shut them off at the tank or as far from the house as you can.

If fire overtakes the house

o Shelter in place. Retreat to the center of the house--that is likely to be the coolest place. If necessary lie on the floor. Heat rises, and the difference between the floor level and even as much as a foot above can be the difference between discomfort and injury. It could even be the difference between life and death. Use whatever material is available to mask your nose, mouth and eyes against smoke.

o In these circumstances the main fire front is likely to move past the house in a matter of minutes. Exit the house on the side opposite the fire as soon as possible, and deal with any fires that may have started on or near the house. Everything will be hot so be sure to use gloves. That is also why you are wearing layers of cotton clothes and boots.